Oscar Nominations 2012: Predictions

After months of movie watching, analyzing and conjecturing, the 2011-2012 Awards Season will move into its final phase early tomorrow morning, when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences announces the nominations for the 84th Annual Academy Awards. It was a really great year in film, even if Oscar ignores some of my favorite films, and I'm looking forward to waking up to watch the nominations tomorrow. Let's see how closely I can guess the big six categories.

Note: I've included my picks for nominations along with an alternate or two and, if something struck me, a performance or film that I would have nominated in the given category.

Best Picture

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

War Horse

Alternates: The Tree of Life, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Should be here: The Ides of March

Since The Artist pretty much has Oscar night sown up already, and since most of the acting categories are either relatively locked or firmly in the "two horse race" phase, the most exciting aspect of the season could be watching what happens with the Best Picture nominees tomorrow. After two years of ten nominees (after decades with five), the Academy has switched their nomination policy for this category again, allowing for anywhere between five and ten nominees, depending on the percentage of votes received. While I'm certain the number of nominations won't make it to ten, there's a fair amount of wiggle room here beyond the five or six consensus picks. Support has been surprisingly strong for Midnight in Paris, a film I found good, in unspectacular, and it now sits as a lock for a nomination in this category. Also in that category are the season's three biggest players (The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo), as well as the big summer hit The Help (with its stellar ensemble cast), and pleasantly strong support for the Aaron Sorkin scripted Moneyball will put it in this category as well. The biggest question mark is War Horse, as the Spielberg epic has fallen from early frontrunner status (you know, before anyone saw the film), and has missed several key precursor nominations from the Directors' and Producers' Guilds. Still, I think Spielberg's popularity, as well as the film's undeniably strong production value, will land it here.

The other big question mark is whether or not the Academy will go for the dark, atmospheric subject matter of David Fincher's Dragon Tattoo. I never thought the film would be an Oscar contender, but recent nominations from the PGA and the DGA are hard to ignore, and it's likely to duplicate that success here. As for outside chances, Tinker, Tailor could easily have a large enough faction of support to land a nomination, though I question whether the film's labyrinthine plot fits in a category that generally tends to play closer to the mainstream side of things. Ditto for Terrence Malick's massively ambitious and polarizing epic (The Tree of Life), which likely came out too early to generate the necessary buzz for a nomination. Extremely Loud is the real wild card: the film has received divisive reviews, but it's an emotionally resonant work that hit at just the right time, and it could have stuck in the minds of enough voters to sneak in with a surprise nomination.

Meanwhile, I'm still a bit disappointed that a handful of my favorite films of the year (Ides, Like Crazy, We Bought a Zoo, Drive, The Lincoln Lawyer) are all going to miss here, and their absence will lead to the first year in awhile where my favorite film of the year is not among the nominees for Best Picture.

Best Director

Michel Hazanvicius, The Artist

Alexander Payne, The Descendants

David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Alternate: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

The "real" Best Picture nominees almost always end up landing in the director category as well, and it's hard to doubt the DGA nomination line-up, which I've replicated in my predictions above. Some pundits predict the Academy to recognize Malick for his massively ambitious undertaking in The Tree of Life, but I don't see a director slipping into this category without a Best Picture nomination. Fincher is the only remote question mark here, but if Dragon Tattoo gets in for Best Picture, it seems like a sure bet that he'll score here as well, especially since some Academy members may still be feeling some residual good will towards his direction for last year's The Social Network (which I still maintain should have won the category). Again, I must express puzzlement that Allen's work is likely to slip into this field, but it's a small gripe for what really is an impressive collection of films.

Best Actor

George Clooney, The Descendants

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender, Shame

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar

Alternates: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor or Michael Shannon, Take Shelter

Should be here: Ryan Gosling, Drive or The Ides of March, Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo

Here's a category poised for some surprises come tomorrow morning. Three of these gentlemen (Dujardin, Pitt and Clooney) are genuine locks, as they've shown up pretty much everywhere else (including the key SAG nomination). The other two slots are anything but locked, with two critically acclaimed portrayals from a pair of young actors in films that have remained in limited release and aren't likely to show up anywhere else in the nominations. Those performances, from Shannon and Fassbender, represent what many have ranked as the key performances of the year, in any category. Shannon has scored a surprise nod before (in 2008, when he was the lone representation for the very actor friendly Revolutionary Road), and is supposedly utterly fantastic, but have enough voters seen his performance for him to sneak into a field crowded with movie stars? And will Shame's difficult subject matter and NC-17 rating keep Fassbender, who's had one hell of a year, from being recognized? I expect one of those performances will make it, but not both, and I feel Fassbender has more buzz. Elsewhere, Leonardo Dicaprio, the lone survivor of a critical decimation of Clint Eastwood's J. Edgar, received a SAG nomination making him hard to count out, but the overall lukewarm response to the film could leave him out yet again. And Gary Oldman's subdued performance in Tinker, Tailor has been showing up on a lot of predictions lists, but I don't hear the buzz.

As for Gosling, he's set to be snubbed for the second year in a row, and Damon's ridiculously likable leading performance in We Bought a Zoo will be another in his long road to the Oscar that he will, I'm confident, someday win.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Alternate: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon TattooShould be here: Felicity Jones, Like Crazy

Not much to say here, as the only one of those five that I've seen is Davis, who is fantastic and deserves the nomination (and ultimately, I think, the win). Still, Mara could easily slip into the field for her portrayal of what has become something of an iconic character in recent years. And Oscar will make its biggest mistake of the year in ignoring Felicity Jones' heartbreakingly real portrayal in Like Crazy, a performance that I still maintain is the best of the year in any category.

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

Albert Brooks, Drive

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Alternate: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life

As much as I loved Moneyball, I haven't for a moment understood why Jonah Hill has gained such traction in this Awards season. His performance is perfectly fine and is obviously a step up from his previous work, but for him to be a more sure bet in this category than Nolte and Brooks, who were both fantastic, is a bit wrong. Trade Hill for Pitt and this is the best category of the night, though it's all completely irrelevant since this Oscar is firmly in the hands of the great, long overdue Christopher Plummer.

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Alternate: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Should be here: Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life

Shailene Woodley is on the bubble here, which I find a bit ironic, since this is probably the one category where I feel very passionately that The Descendants should score a nomination. The two performances from The Help are pretty much locked, solidifying this category's recent trend of two supporting actresses from the same film showing up. Berenice Bejo is equally locked for a delightful supporting turn, and she is likely Spencer's only notable competition for the Oscar. McTeer and McCarthy both scored SAG nominations and Woodley didn't, so I may be sabotaging myself here, but I personally cannot see the Academy going for Bridesmaids, especially over a performance in a film that's probably in second in the Best Picture race. That said, a similar thing happened in the case of Andrew Garfield last year (snubbed for my favorite performance in The Social Network), whose lack of a SAG nomination indicated a lack of strong support, and I have a sneaking suspicion that the same thing will happen to Woodley.