NO GUTS, NO GLORY: FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

For all the excitement and buzz leading up to nomination day, it seems like the remainder of this year's Oscar season has passed without many surprises or, for that matter, a whole lot of fanfare. Those two things may be connected, at least for me, since the predictable nature of this year's awards season has left little to nothing to talk about, and has left me, for the second year in a row, a little bit bored by the proceedings. Maybe it's the absence of so many of my favorite films from the race this year, or maybe it's the fact that my favorite performances were snubbed in almost every acting category. Either way, the season will reach its climactic moment this Sunday evening, with the 84th annual Academy Awards, and despite how dull the season has been, I will most certainly be tuning in. For that reason, have decided to lay out all of my predictions for the night right here. The interesting thing is that, looking through the nominees, there's a lot of categories that are tricky to predict this year, it's just that none of them are the ones most people pay a lot of attention to.

And the nominees are...

Best Picture:

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

I've thought a few times that this year's best picture slate is one of the most boring I've ever seen in the category, but in this case, boring doesn't necessarily equal bad, since I enjoyed each and every one of these films for what they brought to the table. That said, when the Academy increased the size of the Best Picture category two years ago, it was in hopes that it would broaden the variety of the nominees: the Academy hoped it would allow for everything from small art house films, to Oscar baiting features, to comedies, to animated films, all the way to well made, widely loved blockbuster films. The last two years, I think that idea generally worked: we saw summer favorites sneak in that never would have had a chance otherwise (Inception, District 9), we saw Pixar finally earn the nominations they should have gotten for the first Toy Story film (Toy Story 3, Up), we saw a huge box office drama (The Blind Side), and some smaller art house gems (Winter's Bone, An Education) that would have been swept aside in years of five. The quality of all of these films can be debated, as can how deserving or undeserving of the accolade they were, but the Academy had gotten its wish, and the variety was there. This year, its right back to the way things used to be: I've heard the "I haven't seen any of these movies!" argument from a lot of different people, and to me, despite the fact that I don't really think any of these films are obscure in the least, is a failure of the expanded category. I'd rather they just nominated five and eliminated the pretense that any of the extra nominees could ever win.

And again, that's not to say that I don't like these films, since Hugo, The Artist and Moneyball would all be among my list of the year's best, and everything else here was more than worthwhile. I even loved War Horse, which many people thought was just paint-by-numbers Spielberg! It's just that, for the most part, the films that I liked the most, the ones that made me think, the ones that stayed with me for the longest after I saw them, are not here. That's fine, since I certainly can't expect every year to be like 2009 (where my top three were all legitimate contenders), and since I never really expected a few of them (Like Crazy, We Bought a Zoo, The Lincoln Lawyer, Source Code, Crazy Stupid Love) to get anywhere near a Best Picture nomination, and the others (Drive, The Ides of March, Warrior, Beginners, Margin Call) got at least some level of awards attention, I suppose I'll get over the disappointment. Ultimately though, it really doesn't make any difference, since not even Hugo, with its 11 nominations and vast critical acclaim, is any match for the silent film time capsule that is The Artist.

Will win: The Artist (alt: Hugo)
Should win: Hugo
Should have been here: The Ides of March

Best Director:

Michel Hazanvicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

The argument in movie-buff circles is that Malick should win, since his film is an enormously ambitious technical achievement and his entire cast give terrific performances. My personal choice (of these nominees, at least) would be Scorsese, for making his best and most beautiful film in decades, but neither auteur will be able to weather the massive adoration that the Academy has for The Artist, and much like last year, a less experienced director will take the prize for a film that just charmed the Academy. As for the other two nominees (Woody Allen, an old favorite at this point, and Thomas Payne, whose film began the season as one of the frontrunners but lost steam along the way), they're just happy to be here.

Will win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist (alt: Scorsese)
Should win: Scorsese
Should be here: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

Best Actor:

Demián Bichir, A Better Life

George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

One of the most solid categories of the night is still missing many of the best performances I saw last year (or in the case of Michael Fassbender, that I still haven't seen), but Actor is usually so crowded that any oversights can and should be forgiven. Clooney and Pitt give a pair of their best and most nuanced performances to date; Pitt, especially, is perfect for his role, and Clooney does a terrific job with some tricky emotional confusion inherent in his character, but both will likely be going home empty handed yet again, as it's Dujardin's strongly physical and decidedly unforgettable work as a washed up silent film star that will likely prevail. That said, Clooney has been a major player all season, making this category the one of the big eight that's most ripe for an upset, but if I've learned one thing, it's not to doubt the SAG, who handed their award to Dujardin earlier this month. Oldman (finally earning his first Oscar nomination for his wonderfully understated work in Tinker) and Bichir (I haven't seen his film yet) are the also-rans.


Will win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist (alt: George Clooney)
Should win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Should be here: Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March OR Kevin Spacey, Margin Call

Best Actress:

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Once again, the Best Actress category this year boiled down to a battle between Meryl Streep (who delivers a typically great performance in a lukewarm film) and the actress who ultimately ends up beating her to the Oscar. This year the latter role will be filled by Viola Davis, who gives what is definitely one of my favorite performances of the year in The Help (at the head of a killer ensemble cast, no less). Many have argued on Mara's behalf, due to the alarmingly transformative nature of her work, but the nomination is her award, and Davis is a perfectly worthy winner. As for snubs, I continue to get sad when I look at this category and don't see Felicity Jones, who I still maintain gave the best performance of the year in Like Crazy.


Will win: Viola Davis, The Help (alt: Meryl Streep)
Should win: Viola Davis
Should have been here: Felicity Jones, Like Crazy

Best Supporting Actor:

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Maxwell von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

One of the biggest surprises of the season took place in this category on Oscar nomination morning, when Maxwell von Sydow scored a nomination for his memorable work in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. The other four nominees had pretty much remained constants all season, with the fifth slot thought by many to belong to Albert Brooks for his terrific, against-type performance as a mob boss in Drive. If I had to trade one of these gentlemen out for Brooks, it would certainly be Hill, who gives an okay performance, but one that in no way compares to the other four. As for the winner, this award belongs to the long overdue Christopher Plummer, who will take home this lone key trophy for the underrated Beginners. He's certainly the most deserving here, but Nolte is one of my favorite nominations of the night: a nuanced and moving performance in a film that never got enough credit.


Will win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners (alt: Maxwell von Sydow)

Should win: Christopher Plummer
Should have been here: Albert Brooks, Drive OR Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life

Best Supporting Actress:

Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

The Help will gets its Oscar recognition in the areas that it deserves it the most, via domination in the female acting categories. Spencer has this as locked up as any award all night, and since it's the first Oscar handed out, we should all be able to have 100% on our predictions, if only for a few minutes. Chastain got a nomination for a year of unbelievable work, but it's arguably for the wrong film (her performance in The Tree of Life would have been my first choice), and Bejo is splendid in The Artist, but this is one category where the Academy will not be swayed by their love for her film.

Will win: Octavia Spencer, The Help (alt: Berenice Bejo)
Should win: Octavia Spencer
Should have been here: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Another great category, with The Ides of March rightfully sneaking in (even if this is the only nomination it managed, and with the other films encompassing some of the best last year had to offer. You can count Ides out right away, sadly, since this is its only nomination. Same goes for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, which is a feat for how much source material it had to condense alone, but ultimately, I think the book was too big for the movie the screenplay formed, and I expect that Academy members will be as split on it as I am. Hugo is the darkest of horses, a solid screenplay (and a very good adaptation) for a film that's far more notable in other areas. That means the battle will play out between The Descendants and Moneyball, and since both are well liked films with precursor writing awards under their belts, it's a tough call between them. My guess? Taking Clooney's likely loss into account, the Academy will turn to award the film here, the only other area it really can. That said, this race reminds me eerily of another Adapted Screenplay category: 2009, where another Clooney vehicle (Up in the Air) was considered locked, right up until the moment it that wasn't and Precious took the prize (a horrible decision, but notable nonetheless).


Will win: The Descendants (alt: Moneyball)
Should win: Moneyball
Should win: Drive

Best Original Screenplay:

The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

While the other screenplay category is one of my favorites of the night, this is undoubtedly the most interesting, pitting a foreign language film, a raunchy comedy, a silent film, and a intelligent and dialogue driven zeitgeist picture (all first time nominees) against the legendary Woody Allen (who has won this category twice and been nominated for it a record 15 times). General wisdom points to Allen for another win, and despite the fact that much of the film's acclaim has baffled me, a screenplay award would make a certain amount of sense, since it's time-traveling storyline and witty set pieces with famous literary figures mark it as the most "original" work in the category. The Margin Call nomination is particularly inspired, though clearly, the film has no chance for a win. The other contender is The Artist, which will have an uphill battle, seeing as most associate the word "screenplay" with "script" and "dialogue," but the Best Picture winner has also won a screenplay award for the past seven years, so that makes this another category to watch.


Will win: Midnight in Paris (alt: The Artist)
Should win: Margin Call
Should have been here: Beginners

The rest:

*Best Art Direction: Hugo (alt: The Artist)

Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life (alt: Hugo)

Best Costume Design: The Artist (alt: Jane Eyre)

*Best Film Editing: The Artist (alt: Hugo)

*Best Makeup: The Iron Lady (alt: Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows, Part II)

*Best Original Score: The Artist (alt: War Horse)

*Best Original Song: "Man or Muppet" from The Muppets (alt: the only other nominee...)

Best Sound Editing: Hugo (alt: War Horse )

Best Sound Mixing: Hugo (alt: War Horse)

*Best Visual Effects: The Rise of the Planet of the Apes (alt: Hugo)

*Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation (alt: In Darkness)

*Best Animated Feature: Rango (alt: Puss in Boots)

Best Documentary Feature:  Hell & Back Again (alt: Undefeated)

Best Documentary Short: Saving Face (alt. The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom)

Best Short Film (Animated): The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (alt: La Luna)

Best Short Film (Live-Action): The Shore (alt: Tuba Atlantic)

*Categories I'm relatively sure of.

A few notes: Even if Hugo wins nothing else, it will get Art Direction, for being the most beautiful film in the race (the first shot of the Parisian vistas probably could have won it that award alone). Similarly, Best Cinematography often goes to the film that is the "prettiest" rather than the one with the best or most innovative photography, which this year is undoubtedly The Tree of Life. That film is divisive though, and Hugo isn't even the only other player, as The Artist could easily grab a win for its striking black and white photography. And then there's War Horse, which is a fantastically shot film with enormous scope and more than a couple of unforgettable images. I ultimately went for the one that struck me the most, and I think the "creation of the universe scene" from The Tree of Life will have a lot of passionate supporters that should carry it to a win here, but I've been wrong in less wide open categories before.

Costume design is similarly wide open, with four of the five nominees (The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, and Anonymous) all having a fair shot. With all the doubt I have in that category, I just went with the Best Picture frontrunner, but if not The Artist, Jane Eyre's period setting bears similarity to a lot of previous winners, so that felt like a solid alternate. The Best Picture winner generally sails towards a win in Editing as well, so bet on The Artist there, and there are clearly no other players in Best Original Score, since rarely is a film as reliant on that aspect as The Artist is. Parts of The Iron Lady seemed like they were only made so that the makeup team could get an Oscar, and they will, even as Meryl Streep loses the award for the film's most definitive aspect. Best Original Song has become a complete joke, with only two nominees, but the category has belonged to The Muppets all season, with the only question ever being which song they'd nominate.

The sound categories very rarely split, but Hugo and War Horse both have a shot. I'll go with general wisdom, which says Hugo, but general wisdom also said Avatar two years ago, and that film ultimately lost to the war film (The Hurt Locker), so War Horse is an obvious threat. Visual effects, Animated Feature, and Foreign Language film feel like some of the safest bets of the night, while Best Documentary Feature is probably the biggest wild card. Even the hardcore Oscar pundits have no idea what will win that category, and arguments have been stated for each of the five films nominated. One of the Oscar blogs I read advised me to "just pick this one out of a hat," so that's what I did: fingers crossed. As for the short films, I personally have no clue. Sometimes it feels like those categories are there for the the sole purpose of wrecking my predictions, so I just went with what seemed to be the general consensus: again, fingers crossed.

So that's it: all that's left to do is to sit back, relax, and watch Billy Crystal redeem the Oscars from last year's James Franco-shaped trainwreck.

 Happy Oscars!